April 8, 2022
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM
Title: Fairness, Randomness, and the Crystal Ball
Abstract: Prediction algorithms score individuals, or individual instances, assigning to each one a number in the range from 0 to 1. That score is often interpreted as a probability: What are the chances that this loan will be repaid? How likely is this tumor to metastasize? What is the likelihood that this person will commit a violent crime in the next two years? A key question lingers: What is the probability of a non-repeatable event? Without a satisfactory answer, how can we even specify what we want from an ideal algorithm?
In this talk, we will introduce ‘outcome indistinguishability’ — a desideratum with roots in complexity theory. The talk will also situate the concept within the 10-year history of the theory of algorithmic fairness and the four-decade literature on forecasting.
Bio: Cynthia Dwork
Gordon McKay Professor of Computer Science
John Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Harvard Data Science Initiative
Harvard University
Lecture series: The Benjamin and Anne A. Pinkel Endowed Lecture Fund was established through a generous gift from Sheila Pinkel on behalf of the estate of her parents, Benjamin and Anne A. Pinkel, and serves as a memorial tribute to the lives of her parents. Benjamin Pinkel, who received a BSE in Electrical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania in 1930, was actively interested in the philosophy of the mind and published a monograph on the subject, Consciousness, Matter, and Energy: The Emergence of Mind in Nature, in 1992, the objective of which is a “re-examination of the mind-body problem in the light of…new scientific information.” The lecture series is intended to advance the discussion and rigorous study of the deep questions which engaged Dr. Pinkel’s investigations. More information here.