Center Events

Machine Learning for Macroeconomic Prediction and Policy Conference

October 12, 2017 | Glandt Forum, Singh Center for Nanotechnology

Thursday, October 12th and Friday, October 13th, 2017

Glandt Forum, Singh Center for Nanotechnology

Co-Sponsored by the Warren Center for Network and Data Sciences and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Organized by Michael Dotsey (FRBP), Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (Penn), Michael Kearns (Penn)

Thursday, October 12th:

8:00 am- Breakfast

8:45 am- Welcome

9:00 am- Stephen Hansen (University of Oxford): The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Text

9:45 am- Stephen Ryan (Washington University): Classification Trees for Heterogeneous Moment-Based Models

10:30 am- Break

11:00 am- James Cowie (DeepMacro): DeepMacro Data Challenges

11:45 am- Galo Nuno (Banco de España): Machine Learning and Heterogeneous Agent Models

12:30 pm- Lunch

1:30 pm- Francis X. Diebold (Penn): Egalitarian LASSO for Combining Central Bank Survey Forecasts

2:15 pm- Lyle Ungar (Penn): How to Make Better Forecasts

3:00 pm- Vegard Larsen (Norges Bank): Components of Uncertainty

3:45 pm- Break

4:15 pm- Panel: ML and Econometrics: Similarities and Differences (Michael Kearns, Vegard Larsen, Stephen Hansen, Rakesh Vohra (Penn))

Friday October 13th:

9:00 am- Aaron Smalter Hall (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City): Recession Forecasting with Bayesian Classification

9: 45 am- Susan Athey (Stanford GSB): Estimating Heterogeneity in Structural Parameters Using Generalized Random Forests

10:30 am- Break

11:00 am- Panel: ML Challenges at the Fed (Jose Canals-Cerda (Philadelphia Fed), Galo Nuno, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Aaron Smalter Hall)

12:30 pm- Lunch